3C hotter. Earth's danger point. Now scientists say it is going to happen

**Adam** · 7th May 2006, 05:44 AM

Recent report that got leaked

Quote:

3C hotter. Earth's danger point. Now scientists say it is going to happen

By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent

THE world will warm by 3C (5.4F) even under emissions projections for 2050 that leading scientists consider optimistic, the United Nations group that studies global warming has said.

The increase, which would cause drought and famine for 400 million people and devastate wildlife, is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its most confident assessment yet of how greenhouse gases are affecting global temperatures.

NI_MPU('middle');A draft of part of the panel’s fourth report, which the US Government has released on the internet, shows that it has, for the first time, placed a likely figure on the progress of global warming, indicating a level of scientific certainty that it has avoided in the past.

It says that temperatures could increase by between 2C and 4.5C when atmospheric carbon dioxide reaches double the pre-industrial level, but it declares 3C to be the “most likely value” for such change. A 3C rise is the level at which a Met Office conference last year judged that “dangerous” climate change would occur. Previous reports from the IPCC, a traditionally cautious body, have given only wider ranges of possibilities, which it acknowledged to be highly uncertain.

While the panel does not indicate when this rise will occur, experts think it probable that pre-industrial carbon dioxide levels will double by 2050, even given successful efforts to contain greenhouse gas emissions.

Sir David King, Britain’s chief scientific adviser, has argued that stabilisation of carbon dioxide at this level — 550 parts per million — is the best target that the world can hope for, and his view is endorsed by many climatologists.

A report issued by Sir David last month suggested that a 3C rise would put 400 million people at risk of starvation because of lost arable land and water shortages.

As the figure is a global average larger increases could be expected in areas such as the South East of England, where a 4.5C increase could bring 25 per cent more rainfall in winter and 60 per cent less in summer. More extreme weather is also predicted, and rising sea levels would leave many coastal areas at risk of flooding.

The draft document is the report of the IPCC’s Working Group I, which examines the physical science basis for climate change. The analysis of Working Groups II and III, which consider detailed consequences and mitigation strategies, have not been released.

Its contents came to light yesterday when the journal Nature reported that the United States had published the draft on a website, inviting comments from experts and other interested groups.

The unusual manner of its release has alarmed some scientists and environmental groups, who questioned whether the Bush Administration was seeking to defuse its bold conclusions before the final version is published in February.

Roger Pielke Jr, of the University of Colorado, told Nature: “If the report is already out there in circulation, then the ‘news’ value is likely to be much diminished when the official report is finally released.” Friends of the Earth said that the US Government had repeatedly tried to undermine the IPCC in the past.

Apart from providing the most precise estimates yet of the likely course of climate change, the document’s language is much more confident than that of the IPCC’s third report published in 2001. It points to decisive new evidence that the rising temperatures recorded over the past 50 years are the result of human activity and not natural variation.

The pattern of warming ocean, surface and lower atmosphere temperatures, with melting ice at the poles and falling temperatures in the stratosphere, now make it “highly unlikely (less than 5 per cent)” that natural changes could be responsible.

Catherine Pearce, of Friends of the Earth, said: “The implications of a 3C rise give a greater increase in urgency. What we need to see is reinforcement of the current EU target of 2C.” CLIMATE CHANGE FINDINGS

The document is a draft version of the IPCC’s Working Group I, which is considering the underlying science of climate change

The rise in temperature when atmospheric carbon dioxide reaches twice its pre-industrial levels is likely to be from 2C to 4.5C. The “most likely value” is 3C. Values higher than 4.5C “cannot be excluded”, but do not correspond well with the data

Climate change at present is “highly unlikely” to be the result of natural variability

Global average temperatures have increased by about 0.65C since 1900, up from the 0.6C estimate in last report

The world faces future global warming of at least 0.1C per decade even if all greenhouse emissions were to end today

The IPCC report will be finalised at a meeting next month and published next year. It will also contain two other reports into mitigation strategies and likely consequences, details of which have yet to be released

Details of how to access the whole report can be found at: www.climatescience.gov/Library/ipcc/wg14ar-review.htm

Santi · 7th May 2006, 05:48 AM

What a gloomy prediction.

**Adri** · 7th May 2006, 05:59 AM

I've been hearing that it will happen, and it was just a matter of 'when' now. Guess they were right. :/

Ly-Las · 7th May 2006, 06:02 AM

The commen twit on the street wont do anything to stop further rises either. Unfortunatly the human race doesnt seem to know what 'damage limitation' is, and as ever, humans will plough on till weve ****** it up good and proper then say 'oh, we didnt see that coming..' .

Stupid aint it?

Rhus Radicans · 7th May 2006, 06:31 AM

From what I have read, scientists back in the 80's were predicting another Ice Age based on some colder-than-normal winters. Now they're predicting a Global Warming and a Heat Age based on some hot summers and hurricanes. I'm sorry, but I'm not really confident in the science, especially since they've been unable to explain the cause of Ice Ages to begin with.

Ly-Las · 7th May 2006, 06:35 AM

Science has come a long way in the last 20 years. Ive more faith in it now than before.

**Ezekiel** · 8th May 2006, 11:51 PM

My guess is that humankind will find a way to commit suicide before earth gets fed up and kills us.

7th May 2006, 05:48 AM	#2
Santi El Mero Mero Join Date: Apr 2004 Shard: Legends Posts: 592 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Re: 3C hotter. Earth's danger point. Now scientists say it is going to happen What a gloomy prediction.

7th May 2006, 05:59 AM	#3
Adri Wearing metal panties in a lightning storm Join Date: May 2004 Shard: Pacific/Landroval Posts: 3,506 Thanks: 93 Thanked 43 Times in 30 Posts Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: 3C hotter. Earth's danger point. Now scientists say it is going to happen I've been hearing that it will happen, and it was just a matter of 'when' now. Guess they were right. :/ __________________ We are all broken and wounded in this world. Some choose to grow strong at the broken places. --Harold J. Duarte-Bernhardt Thanks to Atlas for the fantastic sig!

7th May 2006, 06:02 AM	#4
Ly-Las Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 527 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Re: 3C hotter. Earth's danger point. Now scientists say it is going to happen The commen twit on the street wont do anything to stop further rises either. Unfortunatly the human race doesnt seem to know what 'damage limitation' is, and as ever, humans will plough on till weve ****** it up good and proper then say 'oh, we didnt see that coming..' . Stupid aint it?

7th May 2006, 06:31 AM	#5
Rhus Radicans Join Date: Apr 2006 Shard: Catskills Posts: 602 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Re: 3C hotter. Earth's danger point. Now scientists say it is going to happen From what I have read, scientists back in the 80's were predicting another Ice Age based on some colder-than-normal winters. Now they're predicting a Global Warming and a Heat Age based on some hot summers and hurricanes. I'm sorry, but I'm not really confident in the science, especially since they've been unable to explain the cause of Ice Ages to begin with. __________________

7th May 2006, 06:35 AM	#6
Ly-Las Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 527 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Re: 3C hotter. Earth's danger point. Now scientists say it is going to happen Science has come a long way in the last 20 years. Ive more faith in it now than before.

8th May 2006, 11:51 PM	#7
Ezekiel Wycorp--Dwarf Hunter Join Date: Jul 2005 Shard: Area 52 Posts: 2,504 Thanks: 0 Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts	Re: 3C hotter. Earth's danger point. Now scientists say it is going to happen My guess is that humankind will find a way to commit suicide before earth gets fed up and kills us. __________________

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