Arcus posted the new chart added for those interested to view subscriptions


A new chart was added yesterday.

Remember when Jeremy came in an hinted at the last
increase being accurate? I'm curious if she will chime in now.

To me,given the fact that she acknowledged the increase as valid, I can also draw the same about the newly published decrease.
Looks like 75k and headed down.

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GalenKnighthawke immediately shot down the claims

If I knew how to put up a website, I could put up a website saying anything.

*shrugs*

Why people keep linking to this thing I really don't know.

Someone on UO Forums was citing a figure of 35,000 subscriptions for UO. Maybe he got that from some other chart.

-Galen's player

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but malice123 sees a different side

This site has been pretty accurate , if a Company rep tells you differently ,there hiding something

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Ni-found it all very


Interesting...

We are even with Tabula Rasa, Garriot's new toy, and we are higher than DAoC, EA's other MMO.

EQ2 only just surpassed EQ at the beginning of 2007? Wierd.

Most MMOs on that list have had a downward trend lately. A couple of those look fishy too. The fact that FFXI has been at the exact same level (500,000) since the beginning of 2006. EVE has not had ANY noticable decline('could' happen if closed accounts are counted to be taken away).

ummm, I'm going to have to look up "Dofus", I've never heard of that one before.

The more MMOs that come onto the market, the more likely to reduce the existing MMOs subscrition levels. A recession can also have that effect.

I don't see UO receiving much of an increase in subscriptions. For people that have played other MMOs chances are that the 2D client is extremely different from any other interface they've ever experienced(graphically & UI). For that market, KR has the best shot at bringing them in, if it is continued to be updated. Without 'shelf presence' UO looses out on those that pick up games at brick-&-morter stores. It's going to be interesting to see what happans if/when DF hits...

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silent asked

So on a related topic what is the magic number that EA will pull the plug? 50k?

to which Ni-replied


Well considering that DAoC looks like it's floating around 45k the 'pull the plug' threshold must be lower than that!

while uk crafter concluded

They'll pull the plug when the game stops making a profit.


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Jeremy made a simple reply to point out

EA doesn't release subscriber numbers. I have no idea where these are coming from, but don't forget your grains of salt.

E. Jeremy Dalberg
UO Community Coordinator
EA Mythic

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not so quiet now silentasked

If the numbers are better then why wouldn't EA publish them to dispute this? EA's silence on this just adds power to the published chart.

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After a further 3 pages of comments Jeremy didnt post more,so I will close with RavenWinterhawks response,[ which I happen to agree with ]

So?

I fail to understand why people are interested in these numbers.

So.
Numbers up
"Wow UO is going to return to its glory days"

Numbers down
"Wow UO is headed to the grave"


Maybe we should realize numbers go up and down and UO will continue to move along.

Maybe someone can enlighten me on the importance of these numbers and how the effect you and me. Or more so my game play. Or our enjoyment of the daily game playing. [/i]

I also want to add that we just have April 2008... the year gives us other 8 month to hope for new subscribbers.

This of course depends on the devs for UOKR. Currently there are no updates since about 3 month, and this is not very "new player" or "current player" friendly.

Ok so UO has about 75k players

75k * 14 US Dollars = 1.050.000$ / month (not counting any other stuff for now such as 7th character slot or mondain's legacy upgrade)
- Costs for all Server monthly probably something about 15.000 - 20.000$ for all shards
- I have no clue how big the UO team is, but let's just say 300.000$ for the DEV team
- + any other costs (hardware upgrades for example or bills etc.), 10.000$

330.000$, let's just round it up to 350.000$ monthly costs, that leaves about 700.000$ profit

with just 50k subscribbers there would be a profit of 350.000$
with just 40k subscribbers there would be a profit of 210.000$
with just 30k subscribbers there would be a profit of 70.000$ (time to kick or replace some devs)
with just 25k subscribbers there would be a profit of 0$ (if nothing changes anytime soon we will have to quit the project)
with just 20k subscribber there would be a profit of -70.000$ (just forget it, let's move on and try something else, UO is history)

Of course the costs are nowhere near being accurate, but i'm just trying to explain that the deadline should be arround the 10-30k subscribber mark.

UO needs a new expansion to bring back some life. But SA is tied to KR, and KR is in no shape to force players to use. Thus, I believe there is going to be an announcement within the next 2 months that Stygain Abyss is going 2D compatible. They have absolutely no alternative short of hiring 100 people and working 24/7 to fix KR issues.

No.

UO needs new players to survive in the long run, therefore just another expansion won't cut it.
You do not need 100 people to keep a game running, more like 10 or 20, max 30.

I actually think, if SA ever get's released it will be indeed just for KR. But it won't happen as long the majority of the players can't use the KR client for various reasons.

They have to fix the KR client before adding any new contant/expansion such as SA.

Did you see the chart? Expansions are what keeps players interested in a game. There hasn't been one in nearly 3 years now! SA would have been released a long time ago if Darkscribe didn't make yet another terrible decision and force it to be KR only.

Expansions, and publicity are two things that help UO increase its subscriber base.

Yes, but you can't publish expansions if the client is still not useable for most players.
Also just going back to 2d is no solution, if they drop KR some players will stop to play as well, if you drop KR not many new players will even consider to give UO a try.

Also no patches at all the past couple month doesn't really help for new subs either.

If they ever decide to go ahead with SA, they should make it for both 2d and KR. Picking either one could cost them subscription numbers. My opinion though, they'd lose more if they keep it KR only.

It's really futile to even argue about it at this point imo. EA/Mythic have gone almost to the point of pulling the plug on UO. yes they have a few dedicated people still working on it but its really just window dressing at this point. WAR is their future and thats what they are banking on! DAoC and UO have run their courses and I would be willing to put cash on it we will never see SA or any other expansion. Look at it from this perspective WAR will be a direct competitor with UO and DAoC fighting for subscriptions, with it being released at the end of the year why would they risk losing potential subs to the new kid on the block by releasing an expansion in the same framework of time. Not to reitterate what has already been said but it would be an expansion clearly designed to only work with a still unstable client. I know its tough to accept but UO will only continue as long as its profitable and those days are dwindling.

And yes you could argue EA/Mythic would still make the same amount of money in sub fees cause its all going to the same company but when you consider the cost of purchasing the new game and new expansions WAR will surely pull in more money!

The pool of MMO players continues to grow. Cannibalization of subscribers is not happening yet. If your game is not growing or losing subs, it is the fault of the game itself and not outside influences. There are over a billion people online and only a few million are playing MMOs. There is plenty of room to grow.

EA screwed up by dropping the ball on MMOs 8 years ago and they are doing it again by banking on a new one instead of a proven one (UO) which despite all that has happened is still very alive.

JC not to beat a horse on this but are you #$%##%$% kidding me! UO is very alive? Have you even played in the last year? Dont believe the charts or what others are saying or just dont remember what UO was like just a year ago? Man open your eyes and you will see UO is far from very alive. As I said I hate this as much as anyone as I have spent many hours playing UO and put alot into it and wish it was very alive. This isnt meant to be an attack on you in any way and I agree wholeheartedly with you that "they" EA have screwed "us" the players yet again which seems to be their M.O. buy a very successful game/studio/company and then expect minimal substandard growth/content and sit back and milk it. I continued paying for my accts waiting eagerly for KR and SA to come out. KR ran like $^$& on my comp even the last time I tried and couldnt drop a friggin piece of rubble without logging into 2d and memory crash after just 3 mins of standing in my house. SA was just a slap in my face which they continue to do with no word on its death/progress. In fact I cancelled my accts with the lovely message we are very excited about UO's future and have some great things planned for you. Hmmm still waiting btw. I just cant justify paying every month to sit around doing BOD's for hours on end, sorting,collecting and deco'ing with no new real content (wooo the new Moonglow event, about on lvl with Magincia and that lasted what about a week or two). I agree with most that the only hope UO has is an expansion but that apparently has been scrapped! Nope UO is far from "very alive" and I cant see it coming outta this hole! Sorry for the flame!

I love UO and continue to play it actively. What frustrates me most is that you can't say a single POSITIVE thing about this game anymore without a million pessimists and former players jumping out to say "UO is dead!" or "You're all effing crazy to think it's alive!"

Where I play, it's alive. The things I enjoy doing in UO are very much available to me to enjoy whenever I want.

I wish it would just die already so that the pessimists and former players can all say "told ya so" and I can go find something else to spend $600/year on.

It's all beyond our control anyway. ANYONE who claims to know the future of UO - pessimist or optimist - is about as believable as the fortune teller down the block. What will be, will be.

I'd prefer to enjoy UO's remaining days - however many there may be - in a positive light.

Sadly, that means not discussing UO around here most of the time, for not wanting to wade through more "UO is dying" blabbering.